* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL192017 11/07/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 51 55 61 65 56 55 53 50 46 43 40 36 36 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 51 55 61 65 56 55 53 50 46 43 40 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 46 48 49 49 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 23 20 21 21 19 16 26 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 0 0 2 2 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 279 274 272 275 271 271 259 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.2 23.5 22.9 22.5 17.4 13.1 15.5 8.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 101 97 94 92 76 71 75 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 89 86 84 83 71 69 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.3 -55.6 -55.6 -55.7 -57.4 -60.5 -61.8 -61.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.6 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 57 60 63 67 59 59 61 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 16 19 21 21 22 20 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 16 33 23 40 26 5 -17 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 17 32 43 19 22 75 62 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 19 26 23 26 35 52 89 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1777 1633 1489 1319 1154 855 791 1050 1436 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 32.3 33.6 35.3 36.9 40.4 44.2 48.5 52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.9 49.6 49.4 48.9 48.5 47.0 43.6 38.7 33.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 17 18 20 25 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -25. -28. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 15. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. 29. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 7. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 26. 30. 21. 20. 18. 15. 11. 8. 5. 1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.9 49.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 RINA 11/07/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.26 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.22 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.25 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 7.9% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 RINA 11/07/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 RINA 11/07/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 47 51 55 61 65 56 55 53 50 46 43 40 36 36 18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 47 51 57 61 52 51 49 46 42 39 36 32 32 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 40 44 50 54 45 44 42 39 35 32 29 25 25 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 33 39 43 34 33 31 28 24 21 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT