* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192017 11/07/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 50 57 62 68 63 54 42 40 36 32 30 28 28 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 50 57 62 68 63 54 42 40 36 32 30 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 43 46 51 52 50 47 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 23 23 22 22 18 23 16 17 41 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -1 0 3 1 4 6 6 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 285 281 274 277 270 269 269 277 275 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 24.8 24.2 23.6 23.3 22.4 20.3 16.9 12.4 12.0 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 104 101 97 96 92 85 78 74 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 92 89 87 86 83 78 74 72 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -55.7 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -57.2 -59.3 -61.7 -62.6 -62.8 -57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -1.1 -1.7 -1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 56 59 61 63 55 55 48 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 15 17 20 21 21 15 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 4 13 25 18 33 -1 -44 -109 -97 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -5 9 26 43 60 28 58 -7 -21 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 13 19 24 24 30 49 68 27 6 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1875 1746 1617 1460 1306 983 845 1025 1475 650 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.0 31.2 32.4 33.9 35.4 38.9 42.5 46.4 50.1 53.7 57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.0 49.8 49.6 49.2 48.8 47.4 44.2 39.4 31.2 19.9 8.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 14 15 17 20 24 29 36 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -15. -20. -25. -31. -35. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 26. 30. 31. 34. 35. 35. 34. 32. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 2. -7. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 27. 33. 28. 19. 7. 5. 1. -3. -5. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.0 50.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 NINETEEN 11/07/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.23 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.24 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.20 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 8.2% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 NINETEEN 11/07/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 NINETEEN 11/07/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 46 50 57 62 68 63 54 42 40 36 32 30 28 28 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 46 53 58 64 59 50 38 36 32 28 26 24 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 46 51 57 52 43 31 29 25 21 19 17 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 36 41 47 42 33 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT