* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192017 11/06/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 51 57 61 60 49 38 35 31 25 20 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 51 57 61 60 49 38 35 31 25 20 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 36 43 46 46 45 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 21 23 22 23 23 19 21 40 52 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 6 4 -1 7 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 289 283 281 276 282 294 261 267 281 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.0 24.7 23.8 23.2 22.5 17.7 13.9 10.6 12.1 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 105 104 99 96 94 79 74 72 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 93 93 89 87 86 75 72 70 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.1 -55.4 -55.1 -55.2 -56.7 -59.7 -61.6 -62.5 -61.4 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.9 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 55 57 60 62 53 55 51 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 20 21 22 19 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 3 12 20 18 -22 -52 -120 -61 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 -1 -9 8 29 37 81 38 3 -14 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 16 17 19 31 -7 6 -39 -70 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1929 1810 1692 1523 1356 1001 891 1224 1226 567 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.6 31.7 33.3 34.9 38.8 43.2 47.9 51.8 54.9 58.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.1 49.9 49.7 49.3 49.0 47.2 42.9 36.4 28.2 18.6 9.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 14 16 19 24 30 33 33 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -3. -11. -21. -27. -33. -41. -46. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 0. -0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 31. 29. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 9. 10. 6. -3. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 27. 31. 30. 19. 8. 5. 1. -5. -10. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.5 50.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 NINETEEN 11/06/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.8 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 NINETEEN 11/06/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 NINETEEN 11/06/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 38 42 51 57 61 60 49 38 35 31 25 20 16 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 39 48 54 58 57 46 35 32 28 22 17 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 43 49 53 52 41 30 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 39 43 42 31 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT