* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192017 11/06/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 46 56 65 60 44 36 35 31 25 22 18 18 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 46 56 65 60 44 36 35 31 25 22 18 18 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 41 47 50 45 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 20 21 20 20 17 28 45 56 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -4 0 6 3 4 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 299 291 286 277 273 267 235 241 257 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.4 24.9 24.3 23.7 22.7 20.9 17.1 11.1 11.4 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 108 105 101 98 94 88 79 73 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 93 92 90 88 86 81 75 72 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.5 -56.1 -55.2 -54.9 -55.2 -57.7 -59.8 -60.3 -56.8 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.8 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 53 57 57 63 57 53 44 38 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 13 19 21 16 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 13 5 -4 12 19 25 -16 -81 -2 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 8 -6 -7 16 30 74 47 6 4 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 9 14 18 26 39 41 5 -125 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1947 1861 1776 1630 1484 1114 818 950 1504 745 402 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 30.1 30.9 32.3 33.6 37.2 41.6 46.4 51.3 56.2 61.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.5 50.3 50.0 49.8 49.7 48.8 45.7 40.4 32.1 21.0 9.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 11 14 16 22 28 34 39 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -4. -12. -19. -24. -30. -38. -43. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 13. 18. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 26. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 12. 4. -8. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 26. 35. 31. 14. 6. 5. 1. -5. -8. -12. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.3 50.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 NINETEEN 11/06/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.38 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.15 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 6.6% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 NINETEEN 11/06/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 NINETEEN 11/06/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 41 46 56 65 60 44 36 35 31 25 22 18 18 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 43 53 62 57 41 33 32 28 22 19 15 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 38 48 57 52 36 28 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 39 48 43 27 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT