* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182017 10/28/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 39 40 39 39 39 38 36 35 34 32 32 33 31 V (KT) LAND 30 32 30 37 37 38 38 38 37 37 34 34 33 31 31 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 29 32 32 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 19 24 34 44 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 10 13 10 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 245 227 217 223 216 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.4 26.6 26.2 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 148 139 133 125 122 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 145 136 131 123 118 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -52.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 6 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 62 59 55 50 36 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 20 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 37 58 68 93 173 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 104 108 120 94 102 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 4 4 1 -82 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 213 108 -33 80 167 474 571 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 21.4 22.9 24.7 26.5 31.1 35.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.9 82.8 81.7 80.0 78.4 73.9 69.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 18 21 23 27 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 67 35 34 12 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -1. -8. -14. -20. -26. -30. -34. -39. -43. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.9 83.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.37 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.61 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.7% 9.6% 5.8% 5.2% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 7.2% 6.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 7.7% 5.2% 2.5% 1.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 30 37 37 38 38 38 37 37 34 34 33 31 31 32 29 18HR AGO 30 29 27 34 34 35 35 35 34 34 31 31 30 28 28 29 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 33 33 34 34 34 33 33 30 30 29 27 27 28 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 21 21 20 20 17 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT