* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/15/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 89 81 77 62 44 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 95 89 81 77 62 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 95 90 83 75 56 35 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 29 34 43 46 41 35 36 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 5 8 11 3 1 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 213 205 197 191 181 197 223 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 22.5 21.3 19.9 18.4 13.4 13.3 12.6 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 95 90 85 81 72 70 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 87 83 80 76 69 67 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.3 -54.9 -54.4 -54.3 -53.7 -52.9 -54.4 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.4 1.2 0.0 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 47 48 44 42 49 49 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 36 39 46 45 35 23 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 115 97 61 54 31 49 -57 -90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 39 28 24 61 92 51 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -40 -67 -59 -86 -84 -85 -4 -3 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1223 968 758 559 473 119 -19 -40 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.3 38.2 40.1 42.8 45.4 50.8 54.8 57.7 60.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 22.7 20.3 17.9 15.9 14.0 10.9 8.0 5.1 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 27 28 30 29 25 19 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 23 CX,CY: 20/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -13. -17. -26. -36. -49. -63. -73. -79. -84. -88. -92. -93. -94. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -18. -26. -28. -27. -28. -26. -24. -26. -28. -29. -31. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 16. 19. 21. 21. 22. 21. 20. 17. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 11. 12. 3. -11. -28. -30. -32. -32. -33. -32. -31. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -19. -23. -38. -56. -75. -97. -99.-102.-105.-107.-110.-112.-115.-121. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 36.3 22.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/15/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -16.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/15/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 11( 31) 6( 35) 0( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 95 89 81 77 62 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 93 85 81 66 43 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 88 84 69 46 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 86 71 48 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 66 43 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 95 86 80 77 68 45 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 95 89 80 74 70 47 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS