* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/14/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 84 82 80 76 71 61 47 36 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 84 82 80 76 71 49 34 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 83 83 81 74 59 39 34 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 12 19 30 34 43 39 36 27 19 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -3 2 4 5 0 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 226 211 206 197 187 165 188 201 243 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.8 24.0 23.4 22.4 19.8 16.1 13.2 12.6 11.6 5.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 107 102 99 94 84 76 71 69 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 97 93 91 87 79 72 68 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.0 -55.7 -55.7 -55.5 -54.7 -54.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 2.0 1.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 47 44 46 47 51 53 52 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 29 30 33 43 47 43 33 24 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 75 107 122 127 69 17 23 41 31 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 48 60 56 33 30 78 61 49 42 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -19 -40 -47 -87 -113 -102 -17 11 20 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1687 1565 1447 1233 990 560 395 -24 -24 251 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.4 34.4 35.4 37.0 38.5 43.1 48.4 53.3 57.3 60.4 63.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.7 27.6 25.5 23.1 20.6 16.0 12.3 8.8 5.6 2.6 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 22 25 27 29 28 24 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -21. -31. -41. -49. -55. -59. -62. -66. -68. -69. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -16. -18. -18. -16. -16. -18. -20. -22. -24. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 13. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 13. 20. 18. 6. -7. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -24. -38. -49. -64. -67. -69. -72. -74. -77. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 33.4 29.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 444.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 7( 24) 5( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 84 82 80 76 71 49 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 82 80 76 71 49 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 79 77 73 68 46 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 73 69 64 42 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 62 57 35 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 63 58 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 84 84 75 69 65 60 38 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS