* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/13/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 84 81 79 79 82 80 79 71 57 48 45 41 39 36 33 V (KT) LAND 90 88 84 81 79 79 82 80 79 71 51 43 40 36 34 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 90 89 86 82 79 79 82 79 67 49 34 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 20 15 12 14 7 35 43 44 29 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 0 -5 -4 -5 7 0 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 345 359 5 341 340 270 214 191 170 167 205 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.9 26.0 25.9 25.4 24.9 23.7 21.7 18.5 15.2 13.1 11.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 114 114 110 107 100 91 80 74 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 96 98 99 97 97 91 83 75 71 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.7 -56.5 -56.0 -56.0 -56.2 -55.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.4 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 52 53 53 56 54 47 48 55 64 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 25 25 27 33 40 48 44 35 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 16 15 22 87 117 95 58 22 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -29 -34 -11 6 17 46 51 44 76 103 60 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 7 8 7 4 -57 -124 -116 -74 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2045 1972 1917 1833 1749 1537 1279 867 550 214 4 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.9 31.2 31.8 32.3 34.0 36.7 40.5 45.0 50.1 55.1 59.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.1 34.3 33.5 32.3 31.0 27.5 23.5 19.3 15.4 11.7 8.0 4.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 12 14 19 23 26 27 28 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -19. -28. -37. -46. -53. -58. -62. -66. -67. -68. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -6. -10. -13. -13. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 16. 26. 21. 10. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -8. -10. -11. -19. -33. -42. -45. -49. -51. -54. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 30.5 35.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/13/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 562.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/13/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/13/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 7( 26) 7( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 88 84 81 79 79 82 80 79 71 51 43 40 36 34 31 28 18HR AGO 90 89 85 82 80 80 83 81 80 72 52 44 41 37 35 32 29 12HR AGO 90 87 86 83 81 81 84 82 81 73 53 45 42 38 36 33 30 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 78 81 79 78 70 50 42 39 35 33 30 27 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 71 74 72 71 63 43 35 32 28 26 23 20 IN 6HR 90 88 79 73 70 71 74 72 71 63 43 35 32 28 26 23 20 IN 12HR 90 88 84 75 69 65 68 66 65 57 37 29 26 22 20 17 DIS