* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/11/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 54 59 65 67 70 69 71 75 74 67 61 50 48 46 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 54 59 65 67 70 69 71 75 74 67 61 44 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 49 52 56 62 65 66 65 65 67 64 56 48 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 10 6 9 9 13 18 14 18 14 29 37 41 36 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -6 -3 -5 -6 -3 -4 2 -5 -2 -5 4 3 2 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 306 335 327 311 329 15 330 343 312 272 215 199 204 172 182 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.1 26.1 25.4 24.8 24.2 22.5 20.9 16.5 13.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 114 114 114 115 113 115 110 106 102 93 88 80 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 95 95 95 96 97 99 96 94 92 84 83 76 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.2 -57.4 -57.1 -57.0 -56.6 -56.1 -56.3 -56.1 -56.2 -55.7 -55.4 -55.3 -54.6 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 52 50 50 51 53 55 53 41 40 41 48 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 23 25 27 25 27 25 26 30 32 31 32 28 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 3 -4 -7 -15 -18 3 28 89 109 106 44 -10 76 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -4 1 5 -16 -10 -17 -33 14 49 43 20 21 39 38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 9 10 -4 -50 -97 -88 -107 -94 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2200 2241 2220 2189 2158 2108 2004 1883 1720 1521 1309 869 487 341 18 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.8 31.6 32.6 34.0 35.8 37.9 40.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.8 37.4 37.1 36.8 36.5 35.9 34.7 32.9 30.5 27.3 23.5 19.1 14.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 4 7 10 13 17 19 20 30 40 39 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 1. -3. -9. -14. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 5. 3. 3. 7. 10. 8. 8. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 20. 22. 25. 24. 26. 30. 29. 22. 16. 5. 3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.9 37.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.8% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 9.1% 4.5% 0.6% 0.3% 1.8% 2.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 7.4% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 54 59 65 67 70 69 71 75 74 67 61 44 42 41 18HR AGO 45 44 47 51 56 62 64 67 66 68 72 71 64 58 41 39 38 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 50 56 58 61 60 62 66 65 58 52 35 33 32 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 46 48 51 50 52 56 55 48 42 25 23 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT