* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/09/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 51 56 62 63 65 61 60 59 61 58 52 44 39 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 51 56 62 63 65 61 60 59 61 58 52 44 39 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 48 51 57 62 65 64 60 57 55 54 53 49 43 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 19 15 12 11 15 26 24 26 18 11 20 40 48 58 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -7 -5 -7 -6 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 -6 -6 -4 0 -12 -1 SHEAR DIR 271 273 280 290 298 344 8 4 10 24 27 332 261 247 243 253 296 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.2 24.5 24.3 23.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 112 112 112 113 113 114 115 114 113 112 107 102 101 97 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 93 93 93 93 94 95 95 96 97 96 96 92 90 89 84 79 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -57.7 -57.8 -57.8 -57.8 -57.5 -57.1 -56.7 -56.4 -56.7 -56.3 -56.1 -56.4 -56.4 -56.5 -57.9 -59.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 2 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 50 52 54 52 53 54 54 52 49 48 53 56 50 46 42 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 17 18 18 19 18 18 18 20 21 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -7 -11 -16 -14 -5 -3 -16 -18 -19 2 12 32 57 50 -44 -132 200 MB DIV 7 -8 -1 2 -9 -15 -8 -10 -46 -23 15 12 33 36 19 -18 -37 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 2 6 4 4 0 -12 -18 -11 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 2046 2056 2067 2094 2121 2185 2251 2190 2114 2032 1913 1792 1676 1439 1265 1192 1101 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.6 31.6 31.5 31.4 31.0 30.5 30.1 30.0 30.4 30.9 31.7 32.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.7 39.4 39.1 38.8 38.4 37.9 37.4 36.9 36.1 35.0 33.6 31.8 30.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 7 9 10 12 13 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -7. -9. -14. -20. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -0. -0. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 22. 23. 25. 21. 20. 19. 21. 18. 12. 4. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.5 39.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/09/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.40 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.23 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.17 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 11.2% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 13.6% 7.4% 0.9% 0.3% 3.1% 2.5% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 8.3% 5.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/09/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/09/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 49 51 56 62 63 65 61 60 59 61 58 52 44 39 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 47 52 58 59 61 57 56 55 57 54 48 40 35 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 46 52 53 55 51 50 49 51 48 42 34 29 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 37 43 44 46 42 41 40 42 39 33 25 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT