* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/08/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 54 51 50 48 35 31 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 46 38 33 30 29 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 46 38 33 30 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 17 23 27 26 33 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 7 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 272 257 260 264 256 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.7 26.9 25.9 24.9 23.6 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 124 127 117 109 101 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 112 115 107 100 92 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 5 4 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 62 57 55 52 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 17 16 16 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -11 -21 -31 -23 -13 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 63 101 105 80 65 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 33 23 42 79 73 87 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -21 -168 -366 -508 -549 -247 -107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 32.3 33.9 35.7 37.4 40.6 43.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.9 87.9 86.9 84.9 82.9 77.2 71.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 21 24 26 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 17 CX,CY: 0/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -23. -26. -29. -32. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -25. -29. -34. -38. -42. -46. -51. -55. -59. -63. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 30.6 88.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/08/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.21 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 310.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.19 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 8.5% 5.8% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/08/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/08/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 46 38 33 30 29 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 51 46 43 42 43 43 43 43 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 51 48 47 48 48 48 48 48 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 46 47 47 47 47 47 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT