* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 82 82 80 71 63 52 36 30 24 18 15 15 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 80 82 69 51 35 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 81 84 72 53 35 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 17 19 31 34 45 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 1 0 0 0 6 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 315 294 293 274 262 266 265 264 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.5 27.7 26.5 26.9 26.2 23.6 21.9 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 147 135 121 126 120 100 92 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 136 123 109 113 108 92 84 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 4 1 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 73 67 62 54 50 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 20 20 21 16 15 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 31 20 -3 0 -14 0 -47 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 64 83 68 66 57 62 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 13 22 23 22 62 42 26 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 391 197 21 -39 -184 -525 -425 -140 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 27.4 29.1 30.8 32.4 35.7 38.8 41.8 44.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.9 88.4 88.9 88.5 88.0 85.1 80.4 74.4 68.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 18 17 17 18 22 26 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 81 29 21 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 24 CX,CY: -9/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -4. -9. -15. -18. -20. -22. -25. -27. -29. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -19. -19. -20. -22. -23. -25. -27. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -8. -14. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 7. 5. -4. -12. -23. -39. -45. -51. -57. -60. -60. -60. -61. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 25.7 87.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 11.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.47 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.22 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.1% 35.5% 28.7% 22.8% 12.2% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 28.7% 35.1% 21.3% 15.2% 7.0% 7.4% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 38.3% 10.0% 5.4% 19.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 33.4% 26.9% 18.5% 19.3% 7.0% 5.7% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/07/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 0( 13) 0( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 10 0( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 82 69 51 35 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 76 63 45 29 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 58 40 24 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 47 31 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT