* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/05/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 51 58 61 66 65 60 56 45 32 21 20 21 22 V (KT) LAND 35 32 39 43 46 51 55 59 48 34 29 29 29 27 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 37 39 41 43 47 53 48 33 29 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 4 7 9 4 12 9 8 14 20 51 77 61 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 4 0 0 0 4 6 4 10 1 -10 -7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 227 188 127 112 38 330 320 290 294 255 266 280 320 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 27.7 29.2 29.0 27.1 27.6 25.4 23.9 22.1 25.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 170 167 167 166 135 157 154 128 135 112 101 92 120 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 172 169 165 166 163 128 147 140 115 120 100 90 83 115 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 6 8 7 8 5 6 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 81 81 79 78 75 74 63 58 47 39 48 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 19 19 19 17 16 17 16 13 12 9 6 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 172 202 211 193 162 84 23 -18 -31 -60 -16 -33 -39 -59 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 153 133 118 100 84 43 39 50 26 43 48 5 8 -35 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -6 -8 -16 6 2 21 30 52 52 14 1 6 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -85 -32 78 218 133 50 370 138 -32 -414 -525 -330 -230 414 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.6 16.6 17.9 19.2 22.0 24.9 27.8 30.9 34.1 37.1 39.8 42.6 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.5 85.0 85.6 86.2 87.5 88.5 89.1 88.3 86.1 82.9 78.7 74.6 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 16 15 15 17 19 21 21 24 37 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 57 66 91 100 18 42 38 7 2 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. 26. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 1. -10. -21. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -10. -16. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 26. 31. 30. 25. 21. 10. -3. -14. -15. -14. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 84.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/05/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.77 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 3.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.92 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.68 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 47.8% 32.2% 13.3% 9.9% 23.4% 26.2% 45.6% Logistic: 11.9% 61.2% 39.2% 34.9% 18.3% 36.9% 50.8% 74.9% Bayesian: 1.6% 9.1% 2.8% 0.8% 0.8% 29.0% 11.7% 32.5% Consensus: 7.1% 39.4% 24.7% 16.4% 9.7% 29.7% 29.6% 51.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/05/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/05/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 39 43 46 51 55 59 48 34 29 29 29 27 26 26 27 18HR AGO 35 34 41 45 48 53 57 61 50 36 31 31 31 29 28 28 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 43 47 51 40 26 21 21 21 19 18 18 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 37 41 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT