* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162017 10/05/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 37 44 51 51 51 53 53 55 51 41 41 42 43 V (KT) LAND 30 32 28 28 32 39 39 44 44 46 35 29 28 28 29 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 28 27 31 34 32 36 38 40 33 28 28 29 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 14 10 6 9 9 14 20 11 12 8 42 58 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 1 2 4 2 1 4 2 5 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 232 218 219 224 79 64 7 1 2 356 262 257 296 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.2 29.9 29.7 28.1 29.1 29.3 28.4 27.7 26.6 25.3 19.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 170 171 172 169 165 140 155 158 144 135 122 113 85 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 166 171 172 167 162 133 143 143 128 120 108 104 82 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 8 7 8 6 7 1 2 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 86 86 84 85 84 81 79 78 74 74 65 59 54 53 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 14 16 16 12 10 11 10 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 141 144 152 178 186 132 62 1 -29 -42 -65 -30 -40 -35 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 151 159 184 139 109 84 39 32 42 43 49 45 -1 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -7 -10 -7 -5 5 11 40 38 9 13 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 43 11 -46 -24 51 192 -12 278 274 120 -177 -378 -488 -7 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.7 14.3 15.3 16.3 18.8 21.4 24.1 26.7 29.2 31.9 34.9 37.9 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.1 83.4 83.7 84.1 84.5 85.7 87.1 88.1 88.3 87.5 86.0 83.8 81.7 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 11 12 14 15 13 13 14 16 17 28 39 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 55 44 54 60 96 25 38 40 17 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. 35. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 0. -9. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. -4. -8. -8. -10. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 7. 14. 21. 21. 21. 23. 23. 25. 21. 11. 11. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 83.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/05/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -1.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.93 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.97 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.82 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 21.4% 11.3% 6.5% 6.1% 10.3% 19.6% 35.4% Logistic: 4.9% 45.8% 16.0% 8.7% 4.9% 23.2% 61.8% 83.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 2.4% 2.1% 15.0% Consensus: 3.6% 23.0% 9.2% 5.1% 3.7% 11.9% 27.8% 44.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/05/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/05/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 28 28 32 39 39 44 44 46 35 29 28 28 29 29 30 18HR AGO 30 29 25 25 29 36 36 41 41 43 32 26 25 25 26 26 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 30 37 37 42 42 44 33 27 26 26 27 27 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 31 36 36 38 27 21 20 20 21 21 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT