* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162017 10/04/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 56 67 73 71 67 63 56 54 49 41 30 20 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 37 33 38 49 55 53 49 40 31 28 28 29 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 36 32 36 43 47 50 53 46 33 29 28 29 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 8 9 12 9 2 16 23 18 16 9 29 39 68 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 0 2 1 6 6 3 0 8 5 7 4 -4 -6 2 SHEAR DIR 327 301 215 207 195 205 105 65 336 359 345 340 288 289 288 295 271 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.4 30.4 29.4 29.9 28.9 29.5 28.9 27.5 27.4 25.8 22.9 22.4 16.4 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 170 170 171 159 169 152 162 152 132 131 115 93 91 75 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 164 167 170 171 156 166 144 150 137 118 115 103 82 80 71 69 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -52.3 -53.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 8 6 7 7 9 8 9 5 7 1 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 86 86 84 83 81 78 78 79 73 69 63 53 49 50 49 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 17 21 21 19 17 17 13 11 9 6 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 106 122 148 156 167 205 142 52 -4 -43 -25 -60 -15 -58 -61 2 131 200 MB DIV 122 140 144 152 159 130 101 19 19 65 46 8 30 -3 -1 3 58 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -8 -1 6 10 8 47 41 11 29 45 41 LAND (KM) 140 81 33 -13 -82 91 184 78 377 258 -55 -259 -369 -100 -90 -58 -122 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.6 16.7 19.3 22.1 24.9 27.6 30.4 33.1 35.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.3 82.7 83.2 83.6 84.0 84.8 85.7 86.6 86.9 86.4 85.3 83.6 81.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 12 14 14 14 14 15 15 20 15 15 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 48 46 53 47 42 63 104 40 117 29 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 35. 37. 35. 34. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. -0. -5. -14. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 8. 4. 1. 0. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 26. 37. 43. 41. 37. 33. 26. 24. 19. 11. 0. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 82.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/04/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.87 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -13.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.94 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.97 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 143.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.80 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 65% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 48.6% 32.7% 8.8% 8.4% 21.7% 33.8% 64.8% Logistic: 19.4% 80.1% 53.7% 38.4% 26.3% 49.5% 67.9% 77.2% Bayesian: 4.4% 30.2% 9.0% 2.6% 1.7% 15.6% 3.5% 52.6% Consensus: 10.7% 53.0% 31.8% 16.6% 12.1% 28.9% 35.1% 64.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/04/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/04/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 37 33 38 49 55 53 49 40 31 28 28 29 29 30 18HR AGO 30 29 34 32 28 33 44 50 48 44 35 26 23 23 24 24 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 24 20 25 36 42 40 36 27 18 15 15 16 16 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT