* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/29/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 55 56 54 46 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 55 56 54 46 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 50 51 52 50 41 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 12 13 17 19 29 55 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 0 4 5 21 25 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 140 193 249 254 244 256 226 229 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 25.7 25.5 24.9 22.3 21.6 16.3 15.1 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 116 115 110 95 92 78 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 106 105 101 88 86 75 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 42 42 40 40 36 31 25 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 27 28 29 29 27 13 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 76 46 36 41 2 -35 -40 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 42 37 49 44 6 -10 -19 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -19 -11 -5 -21 -21 -51 -76 -157 -203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 770 839 872 788 762 1052 1629 812 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.2 37.9 38.6 39.7 40.7 43.3 46.3 49.5 52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.7 58.6 55.5 52.0 48.5 40.6 31.4 21.1 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 25 27 29 30 34 37 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 18 CX,CY: 18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -12. -15. -19. -23. -28. -34. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -16. -27. -29. -30. -31. -31. -30. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -6. -4. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. -4. -31. -55. -56. -60. -61. -65. -69. -70. -69. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.2 61.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/29/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.62 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 381.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.23 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.4% 8.4% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.2% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.9% 3.6% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/29/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/29/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 53 55 56 54 46 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 54 52 44 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 49 47 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT