* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/27/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 96 93 88 78 63 52 57 54 51 49 46 43 40 38 35 V (KT) LAND 100 99 96 93 88 78 63 52 57 54 51 49 46 43 40 38 35 V (KT) LGEM 100 99 96 93 89 80 69 64 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 14 15 22 36 31 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -2 1 0 0 -1 -1 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 322 340 352 7 1 360 322 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.2 24.9 18.5 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 134 135 131 111 82 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 112 113 113 117 117 102 77 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 6 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 45 43 45 43 48 53 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 20 19 19 14 13 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -80 -92 -100 -119 -130 -157 -118 -67 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -36 -29 -18 -38 -36 -12 13 39 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 1 5 5 24 53 12 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1626 1603 1535 1455 1378 1158 823 873 1274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.9 31.4 32.3 33.2 36.1 39.8 44.0 48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.5 56.8 57.1 56.9 56.7 54.5 49.4 42.6 35.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 13 22 30 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 12 14 7 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -16. -27. -38. -45. -50. -54. -57. -60. -62. -64. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -15. -15. -13. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -10. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -12. -22. -37. -48. -43. -46. -49. -51. -54. -57. -60. -62. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 30.3 56.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 845.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.05 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 11 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/27/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 19( 37) 11( 44) 6( 47) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 99 96 93 88 78 63 52 57 54 51 49 46 43 40 38 35 18HR AGO 100 99 96 93 88 78 63 52 57 54 51 49 46 43 40 38 35 12HR AGO 100 97 96 93 88 78 63 52 57 54 51 49 46 43 40 38 35 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 85 75 60 49 54 51 48 46 43 40 37 35 32 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 71 56 45 50 47 44 42 39 36 33 31 28 IN 6HR 100 99 90 84 81 76 61 50 55 52 49 47 44 41 38 36 33 IN 12HR 100 99 96 87 81 77 62 51 56 53 50 48 45 42 39 37 34