* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/27/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 95 94 91 83 72 62 69 67 65 64 62 59 57 55 53 V (KT) LAND 95 95 95 94 91 83 72 62 69 67 65 64 62 59 57 55 53 V (KT) LGEM 95 94 94 92 89 82 73 69 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 13 17 25 33 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -6 -2 -1 0 0 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 343 317 322 329 353 4 6 336 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 26.2 23.3 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 134 134 133 121 99 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 112 112 113 113 116 110 91 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -54.8 -54.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 11 9 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 45 43 44 43 43 42 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 21 22 21 19 17 15 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -75 -75 -87 -98 -117 -146 -120 -44 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -27 -31 -29 -38 -37 0 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 1 1 5 7 39 30 -108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1639 1643 1589 1510 1432 1256 991 757 923 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.5 30.9 31.7 32.4 34.6 37.8 41.6 45.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.0 56.5 57.0 57.1 57.2 56.1 52.4 46.8 41.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 9 16 25 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 11 12 7 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -22. -31. -37. -41. -45. -48. -51. -53. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -8. -6. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -6. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -4. -12. -23. -33. -26. -28. -30. -31. -33. -36. -38. -40. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 30.1 56.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 801.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.10 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 20 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/27/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 17( 31) 12( 39) 9( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 95 94 91 83 72 62 69 67 65 64 62 59 57 55 53 18HR AGO 95 94 94 93 90 82 71 61 68 66 64 63 61 58 56 54 52 12HR AGO 95 92 91 90 87 79 68 58 65 63 61 60 58 55 53 51 49 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 82 74 63 53 60 58 56 55 53 50 48 46 44 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 68 57 47 54 52 50 49 47 44 42 40 38 IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 71 60 50 57 55 53 52 50 47 45 43 41 IN 12HR 95 95 95 86 80 76 65 55 62 60 58 57 55 52 50 48 46