* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/26/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 81 82 84 86 87 80 73 62 50 68 53 44 42 41 41 V (KT) LAND 80 80 81 82 84 86 87 80 73 62 50 68 53 44 42 41 41 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 81 82 82 82 82 79 73 61 56 54 45 44 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 6 5 8 14 23 37 33 31 6 22 73 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 3 -3 0 -4 -1 2 -1 1 2 15 12 -6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 113 93 87 47 5 316 335 348 358 354 352 299 261 279 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 26.7 25.3 23.5 17.9 14.8 13.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 133 133 134 134 132 132 134 123 112 100 79 77 75 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 112 112 113 112 109 110 114 107 99 90 74 75 73 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.5 -56.4 -56.1 -55.8 -55.5 -53.7 -53.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -50.4 -49.1 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 7 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 45 44 44 43 44 40 48 53 57 42 72 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 18 19 19 21 20 20 16 13 28 20 23 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -74 -67 -76 -79 -86 -105 -130 -175 -157 -25 85 142 240 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -33 -13 -16 1 0 -23 -40 -24 -33 6 39 61 16 46 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -3 -1 0 0 7 19 36 33 -90 -15 -25 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1820 1815 1810 1766 1724 1627 1511 1387 1201 947 887 1156 1539 317 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.6 30.7 31.3 32.4 33.8 35.9 38.7 41.8 45.1 48.4 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.0 51.8 52.6 53.4 54.2 55.3 55.3 54.6 52.5 49.1 44.3 38.2 32.1 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 5 6 11 16 22 26 27 47 63 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 16 16 21 22 14 14 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -29. -34. -39. -41. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 4. 2. -3. -8. 12. 0. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 0. -7. -18. -30. -12. -27. -36. -38. -39. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.4 51.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.77 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 640.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.26 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.04 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 14.3% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 9.3% 5.5% 2.9% 2.4% 6.0% 3.9% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 8.9% 5.3% 1.0% 0.8% 2.0% 1.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/26/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 9( 22) 10( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 81 82 84 86 87 80 73 62 50 68 53 44 42 41 41 18HR AGO 80 79 80 81 83 85 86 79 72 61 49 67 52 43 41 40 40 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 79 81 82 75 68 57 45 63 48 39 37 36 36 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 72 74 75 68 61 50 38 56 41 32 30 29 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT