* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP182017 09/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 35 32 27 23 22 22 21 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 22 28 39 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 180 201 199 195 192 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 162 164 165 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 42 39 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 80 67 80 97 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 31 27 28 33 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 0 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 88 79 60 45 30 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.5 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.5 106.7 106.8 107.0 107.1 107.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 25 26 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. 37. 40. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -10. -19. -27. -33. -35. -37. -38. -40. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. -21. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.0 106.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182017 PILAR 09/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182017 PILAR 09/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##