* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 70 69 67 64 59 57 50 49 45 46 42 30 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 71 70 69 67 64 59 57 50 49 45 46 42 30 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 69 68 67 64 61 59 58 55 54 54 53 48 44 46 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 17 19 16 16 15 15 8 13 19 30 35 78 79 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 2 3 -1 -1 -2 3 6 11 8 12 14 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 302 313 299 309 318 314 296 294 318 287 285 226 237 232 247 240 225 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.6 25.9 25.3 25.2 25.8 25.8 26.3 16.1 12.4 14.0 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 129 127 124 123 117 110 106 106 113 114 125 79 75 74 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 108 105 103 101 95 91 89 90 97 98 122 76 73 72 69 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -49.8 -49.8 -50.0 -49.8 -49.7 -49.9 -50.2 -50.3 -50.5 -50.2 -50.0 -48.8 -47.0 -46.9 -45.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.4 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 2.0 4.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 57 58 59 62 66 65 61 57 53 45 43 29 42 46 41 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 41 41 41 40 39 38 39 37 37 35 35 34 30 29 35 50 850 MB ENV VOR 65 67 64 63 51 45 27 23 9 41 60 104 127 155 186 253 348 200 MB DIV 15 22 52 33 26 20 -10 11 8 8 11 32 14 32 48 47 83 700-850 TADV 14 20 11 14 20 7 5 6 4 17 13 7 9 -2 -31 -111 -37 LAND (KM) 595 539 484 431 381 313 267 270 346 496 573 660 720 623 1246 884 401 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.9 31.4 32.0 32.5 33.5 34.3 34.9 35.6 36.2 36.9 37.7 38.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.1 73.2 73.3 73.4 73.4 73.3 72.9 71.9 70.2 67.5 63.8 60.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 10 13 15 38 53 41 33 27 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 14 12 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -14. -19. -23. -26. -28. -29. -34. -37. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -10. -19. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -8. -9. -13. -13. -16. -20. -22. -14. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -16. -18. -25. -26. -30. -29. -33. -45. -59. -62. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.3 73.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.51 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 7.2% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.6% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/25/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 3( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 71 70 69 67 64 59 57 50 49 45 46 42 30 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 72 70 67 62 60 53 52 48 49 45 33 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 70 68 65 60 58 51 50 46 47 43 31 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 60 55 53 46 45 41 42 38 26 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT