* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP182017 09/24/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 43 47 47 47 44 41 37 37 38 39 38 37 38 V (KT) LAND 35 40 42 44 47 51 39 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 38 38 38 39 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 8 13 27 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 105 123 134 177 186 171 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 159 160 160 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 50 47 45 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 88 89 84 71 88 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 47 41 18 16 50 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 30 38 35 19 15 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.5 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.7 105.8 105.8 105.8 105.8 105.9 106.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 24 25 27 29 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 22. 25. 28. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 1. -2. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 12. 12. 9. 6. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.4 105.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182017 PILAR 09/24/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.80 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 26.0% 22.5% 16.2% 12.5% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.3% 17.3% 13.0% 6.8% 6.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% Consensus: 6.7% 14.6% 11.9% 7.7% 6.3% 5.9% 0.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182017 PILAR 09/24/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##