* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/24/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 84 86 86 85 85 84 87 85 80 69 63 53 72 62 48 V (KT) LAND 80 83 84 86 86 85 85 84 87 85 80 69 63 53 72 62 48 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 85 85 84 84 85 84 84 82 78 72 64 64 58 45 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 5 6 6 8 6 3 4 5 14 22 29 35 18 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -4 -5 -3 0 -2 -3 -3 4 4 4 0 -1 17 11 19 SHEAR DIR 226 223 226 167 139 128 71 26 259 273 357 17 19 348 322 290 301 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.5 27.1 22.8 18.3 16.8 15.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 124 124 124 127 130 130 131 129 126 129 130 99 81 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 101 101 101 105 107 107 108 106 105 108 118 94 76 71 70 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.2 -56.6 -56.7 -56.2 -56.1 -55.9 -55.7 -55.4 -54.7 -53.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 51 48 44 41 43 42 41 39 38 42 47 53 48 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 16 16 16 16 17 20 21 21 18 17 13 31 26 16 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -65 -69 -69 -69 -69 -79 -81 -95 -106 -128 -155 -106 -11 39 62 165 200 MB DIV -21 -8 -18 -38 -33 -14 -1 2 -11 -7 -31 -45 11 68 69 -5 33 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 11 37 18 -108 -14 -9 LAND (KM) 1722 1749 1775 1797 1819 1843 1823 1783 1725 1635 1525 1377 1235 947 1376 1386 839 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.2 31.0 30.8 30.6 30.3 30.4 30.7 31.2 32.0 33.0 34.4 35.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.9 49.6 49.3 49.3 49.3 49.9 50.7 51.5 52.1 52.4 52.1 51.1 50.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 7 8 23 38 31 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 9 9 11 14 15 18 14 7 6 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -25. -28. -30. -33. -36. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 12. 10. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 4. 4. 3. -2. -4. -10. 12. 5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 7. 5. -0. -11. -17. -26. -8. -18. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.4 49.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 536.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 30.6% 26.7% 12.8% 5.3% 17.2% 9.0% 5.9% Bayesian: 2.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.8% 10.8% 9.1% 4.4% 1.8% 5.8% 3.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/24/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 9( 15) 10( 24) 10( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 84 86 86 85 85 84 87 85 80 69 63 53 72 62 48 18HR AGO 80 79 80 82 82 81 81 80 83 81 76 65 59 49 68 58 44 12HR AGO 80 77 76 78 78 77 77 76 79 77 72 61 55 45 64 54 40 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 69 69 68 71 69 64 53 47 37 56 46 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 64 64 63 66 64 59 48 42 32 51 41 27 IN 12HR 80 83 84 75 69 65 65 64 67 65 60 49 43 33 52 42 28