* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/22/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 32 30 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 35 32 30 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 35 33 31 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 18 21 21 32 28 34 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 277 280 284 281 291 305 311 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.4 24.0 24.6 24.8 25.2 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 86 87 90 94 97 99 103 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 72 73 75 78 79 80 83 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 1 4 3 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 43 44 43 44 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 22 20 19 16 12 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -29 -37 -47 -58 -88 -90 -47 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -34 -26 -42 -44 -42 -21 -36 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 262 274 286 308 331 364 374 381 384 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.4 39.3 39.2 39.1 38.9 38.7 38.6 38.4 38.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.2 69.2 69.1 68.9 68.6 68.2 68.2 68.7 69.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -24. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -25. -33. -35. -37. -38. -38. -36. -35. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -22. -33. -43. -47. -50. -52. -55. -57. -58. -58. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 39.4 69.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/22/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/22/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/22/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 35 32 30 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 36 33 31 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 33 31 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT