* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/22/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 108 108 108 103 106 106 104 102 97 94 90 87 78 71 66 V (KT) LAND 110 109 108 108 108 103 106 106 104 102 97 94 90 87 78 71 66 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 109 109 108 105 103 98 90 84 80 76 73 70 65 63 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 12 16 19 13 14 6 13 13 22 12 19 13 16 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 7 3 2 0 0 0 3 3 4 0 -6 -3 -2 6 11 SHEAR DIR 245 237 222 211 225 226 244 210 283 293 286 266 259 260 300 349 321 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.5 28.2 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 25.9 25.3 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 156 159 163 159 138 129 128 125 123 123 110 103 117 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 137 140 142 143 137 117 109 107 104 102 102 91 84 99 104 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -50.3 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 -49.5 -49.6 -49.2 -49.2 -49.1 -49.3 -49.3 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.3 1.7 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 65 64 65 61 60 55 60 59 64 65 61 51 49 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 34 37 37 41 43 43 45 46 47 47 47 44 43 42 850 MB ENV VOR 47 32 46 50 37 34 38 56 77 85 106 112 133 116 105 77 80 200 MB DIV 68 81 108 102 96 105 53 53 28 49 22 60 34 20 -62 23 22 700-850 TADV 15 19 20 9 11 10 14 11 15 17 24 12 13 5 10 13 31 LAND (KM) 161 235 311 394 476 630 761 802 733 679 648 623 608 594 550 640 721 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.9 22.6 23.4 24.1 25.7 27.1 28.4 29.5 30.5 31.4 32.3 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.4 70.8 71.1 71.4 71.7 72.1 72.2 72.1 71.8 71.3 70.8 70.3 69.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 4 2 9 15 HEAT CONTENT 58 65 67 63 55 40 42 26 20 17 15 12 13 1 0 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -9. -18. -27. -35. -41. -46. -51. -57. -61. -64. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -5. -1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 12. 15. 16. 18. 19. 20. 18. 17. 12. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -7. -4. -4. -6. -8. -13. -16. -20. -23. -32. -39. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 21.2 70.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.47 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 488.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.01 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 15.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 5.5% 3.2% 2.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 7.2% 4.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/22/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 28( 49) 28( 63) 25( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 27 55( 67) 28( 76) 44( 87) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 109 108 108 108 103 106 106 104 102 97 94 90 87 78 71 66 18HR AGO 110 109 108 108 108 103 106 106 104 102 97 94 90 87 78 71 66 12HR AGO 110 107 106 106 106 101 104 104 102 100 95 92 88 85 76 69 64 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 100 95 98 98 96 94 89 86 82 79 70 63 58 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 86 89 89 87 85 80 77 73 70 61 54 49 IN 6HR 110 109 100 94 91 89 92 92 90 88 83 80 76 73 64 57 52 IN 12HR 110 109 108 99 93 89 92 92 90 88 83 80 76 73 64 57 52