* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 103 102 101 97 99 101 103 102 98 96 93 93 92 85 76 V (KT) LAND 100 102 103 102 101 97 99 101 103 102 98 96 93 93 92 85 76 V (KT) LGEM 100 102 103 102 100 102 102 100 95 86 80 77 75 76 74 70 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 10 15 17 19 17 16 12 11 13 18 20 17 17 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 10 12 9 4 0 2 1 1 3 0 -4 0 -5 0 3 SHEAR DIR 280 284 254 251 242 231 226 217 254 243 285 271 253 219 241 204 234 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 28.7 27.5 27.0 27.0 26.8 27.1 26.2 26.6 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 157 159 159 163 165 165 146 129 123 123 120 122 115 120 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 143 144 144 145 146 144 125 109 104 104 100 100 96 100 95 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -49.7 -49.8 -49.8 -49.4 -49.6 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.7 2.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 53 57 60 60 64 66 66 65 63 58 58 60 62 62 61 55 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 30 29 29 31 32 38 39 41 42 42 43 44 48 50 49 45 850 MB ENV VOR 44 57 64 43 40 57 40 52 53 70 81 102 121 139 159 128 136 200 MB DIV 22 72 73 56 58 83 94 93 54 26 29 40 45 110 46 10 32 700-850 TADV -1 2 2 9 13 8 12 9 12 6 10 9 13 7 14 1 10 LAND (KM) 79 101 144 206 267 422 571 712 776 735 644 606 573 661 581 526 464 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.0 21.6 22.2 23.6 25.0 26.6 28.0 29.3 30.6 31.8 33.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.3 69.9 70.3 70.8 71.5 71.9 72.2 72.3 72.1 71.7 71.0 70.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 4 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 55 59 68 75 66 44 44 34 27 17 14 10 12 3 13 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -14. -19. -25. -29. -34. -38. -42. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -3. 0. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 11. 14. 15. 14. 16. 16. 18. 20. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -1. 1. 3. 2. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -15. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.9 68.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.61 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 562.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.34 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.15 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 15.9% 10.8% 7.6% 7.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 4.6% 2.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 7.7% 3.5% 1.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 8.0% 5.0% 3.4% 3.0% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/21/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 25( 42) 23( 55) 20( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 21 54( 64) 7( 66) 11( 70) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 103 102 101 97 99 101 103 102 98 96 93 93 92 85 76 18HR AGO 100 99 100 99 98 94 96 98 100 99 95 93 90 90 89 82 73 12HR AGO 100 97 96 95 94 90 92 94 96 95 91 89 86 86 85 78 69 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 85 87 89 91 90 86 84 81 81 80 73 64 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 77 79 81 83 82 78 76 73 73 72 65 56 IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 82 84 86 88 87 83 81 78 78 77 70 61 IN 12HR 100 102 103 94 88 84 86 88 90 89 85 83 80 80 79 72 63