* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/21/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 98 100 100 98 99 99 105 103 104 99 98 92 88 86 79 V (KT) LAND 95 98 98 100 100 98 99 99 105 103 104 99 98 92 88 86 79 V (KT) LGEM 95 96 98 99 101 102 102 100 97 92 85 80 77 74 72 71 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 13 13 10 13 19 13 14 5 8 15 16 20 18 11 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 4 7 10 3 4 2 5 1 4 4 -2 -1 -4 3 SHEAR DIR 222 292 295 303 274 241 221 214 222 250 246 295 275 265 216 213 294 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 28.3 27.5 27.2 27.2 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 163 161 161 161 163 161 140 129 125 125 118 117 119 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 152 151 149 147 145 144 144 141 120 109 106 106 98 97 97 95 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -49.4 -49.3 -49.2 -49.9 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.4 2.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 6 6 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 56 58 63 66 64 64 58 55 56 58 65 62 62 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 27 30 30 32 35 36 40 40 41 40 43 43 45 47 44 850 MB ENV VOR 64 52 48 54 57 42 58 36 52 55 73 87 82 78 113 132 117 200 MB DIV 32 13 8 52 26 75 104 97 91 31 20 23 49 32 84 54 -50 700-850 TADV 5 2 0 -2 0 18 12 12 9 8 7 9 16 17 5 0 2 LAND (KM) 61 87 85 103 134 258 411 560 697 766 701 611 525 597 529 444 409 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 22.1 23.5 24.9 26.5 28.0 29.5 30.7 32.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.6 68.1 68.7 69.2 69.8 70.7 71.4 71.9 72.3 72.4 72.4 72.1 71.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 56 57 57 58 61 76 67 44 43 31 27 22 18 11 7 10 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. -8. -12. -17. -20. -24. -29. -33. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 5. 6. 11. 10. 11. 9. 12. 10. 11. 12. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 4. 4. 10. 8. 9. 4. 3. -3. -7. -9. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.9 67.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.74 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 614.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.29 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.25 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 15.3% 10.4% 7.5% 7.2% 9.0% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 4.6% 3.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.7% 1.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 4.7% 4.2% 3.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 8.0% 5.6% 3.3% 2.9% 3.3% 3.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/21/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 21( 34) 22( 49) 21( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 68 39( 80) 59( 92) 48( 96) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 98 98 100 100 98 99 99 105 103 104 99 98 92 88 86 79 18HR AGO 95 94 94 96 96 94 95 95 101 99 100 95 94 88 84 82 75 12HR AGO 95 92 91 93 93 91 92 92 98 96 97 92 91 85 81 79 72 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 83 84 84 90 88 89 84 83 77 73 71 64 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 74 75 75 81 79 80 75 74 68 64 62 55 IN 6HR 95 98 89 83 80 79 80 80 86 84 85 80 79 73 69 67 60 IN 12HR 95 98 98 89 83 79 80 80 86 84 85 80 79 73 69 67 60