* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/21/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 49 47 43 36 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 49 47 43 36 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 50 48 46 43 41 38 34 31 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 14 12 12 9 17 24 33 25 29 33 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -7 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -5 -2 -2 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 241 212 200 218 262 259 279 268 286 274 281 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.2 23.5 23.9 23.9 23.7 22.8 22.4 22.6 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.7 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 91 92 92 91 87 84 85 86 85 86 86 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 77 76 76 75 75 73 71 71 72 71 72 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -52.8 -53.3 -52.5 -51.9 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.0 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 2 1 4 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 42 41 40 43 44 44 44 45 43 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 31 31 30 27 24 20 16 10 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 17 16 16 5 5 -21 -60 -72 -94 -96 -50 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 -4 -4 2 28 -16 -15 -43 -26 -63 -10 2 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -2 -1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 282 287 295 292 290 267 254 257 262 258 241 209 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.5 39.4 39.3 39.3 39.3 39.4 39.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.5 68.1 67.8 67.8 67.9 68.4 69.1 69.5 69.8 69.9 70.2 70.7 71.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 1 0 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -26. -29. -32. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -7. -13. -20. -28. -37. -45. -50. -51. -49. -48. -45. -44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -8. -12. -19. -28. -40. -54. -65. -73. -81. -82. -83. -84. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 39.4 68.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/21/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/21/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/21/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 50 49 47 43 36 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 51 50 48 44 37 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 48 44 37 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 39 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT