* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 101 103 103 96 93 91 98 97 98 98 99 95 93 89 84 V (KT) LAND 95 98 101 103 103 96 93 91 98 97 98 98 99 95 93 89 84 V (KT) LGEM 95 96 99 100 101 99 98 98 96 92 88 84 81 77 75 73 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 6 9 12 16 18 21 19 15 11 16 16 17 13 17 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 8 6 1 -2 2 -1 5 0 2 -4 -8 -4 SHEAR DIR 143 182 265 271 266 255 237 224 203 218 220 249 240 277 220 216 238 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.3 28.2 28.1 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 163 163 161 161 163 165 156 138 137 122 122 120 117 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 154 153 150 150 146 145 145 145 135 118 116 102 101 99 97 100 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.3 -50.0 -49.5 -50.0 -49.8 -49.9 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.4 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 54 51 50 53 56 59 65 64 65 59 60 55 60 59 62 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 28 29 29 28 30 31 37 37 39 40 43 43 45 45 44 850 MB ENV VOR 61 62 46 46 55 45 50 42 37 51 63 83 88 74 81 92 89 200 MB DIV 49 21 -4 0 48 34 93 80 90 65 58 17 46 29 69 49 22 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 1 3 7 15 15 13 12 14 21 18 17 4 1 4 LAND (KM) 11 85 88 90 102 213 356 509 629 702 707 557 417 543 490 355 285 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.7 23.0 24.5 26.0 27.6 29.1 30.6 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.0 67.7 68.4 69.0 69.7 70.7 71.5 72.2 72.7 73.0 73.1 73.2 73.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 6 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 56 56 57 57 60 66 64 50 48 42 30 26 10 15 9 2 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -25. -30. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -1. -0. 7. 6. 8. 9. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 1. -2. -4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. -2. -6. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.6 67.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.83 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 671.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.23 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 17.5% 11.7% 8.6% 8.4% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.3% 17.8% 14.6% 10.6% 6.2% 3.4% 1.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 7.1% 8.0% 5.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.9% 14.4% 10.6% 6.9% 5.1% 4.4% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/20/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 23( 36) 25( 52) 19( 61) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 74 54( 88) 50( 94) 15( 95) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 98 101 103 103 96 93 91 98 97 98 98 99 95 93 89 84 18HR AGO 95 94 97 99 99 92 89 87 94 93 94 94 95 91 89 85 80 12HR AGO 95 92 91 93 93 86 83 81 88 87 88 88 89 85 83 79 74 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 78 75 73 80 79 80 80 81 77 75 71 66 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 69 66 64 71 70 71 71 72 68 66 62 57 IN 6HR 95 98 89 83 80 76 73 71 78 77 78 78 79 75 73 69 64 IN 12HR 95 98 101 92 86 82 79 77 84 83 84 84 85 81 79 75 70