* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 54 52 47 42 35 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 54 52 47 42 35 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 58 56 53 50 47 45 44 41 37 34 33 30 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 19 14 11 9 8 15 12 26 19 19 31 40 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -1 0 -2 0 -4 -1 -2 -4 -3 -6 -6 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 227 234 220 203 262 243 290 297 302 309 296 272 250 233 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.0 22.5 22.5 22.7 23.1 22.7 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 23.1 23.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 90 87 85 85 86 86 85 85 84 83 83 83 90 93 87 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 77 74 72 71 71 72 72 71 71 69 69 69 79 80 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -52.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.8 1.8 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 2 2 0 1 0 3 2 5 4 7 3 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 45 43 43 42 45 46 46 44 44 46 46 51 49 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 33 32 31 29 26 22 19 15 11 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 40 15 11 7 7 -15 -39 -66 -85 -108 -133 -87 -69 18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 33 -9 0 5 14 -15 -23 -68 -61 -50 -14 16 28 49 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 4 1 1 1 0 -1 2 3 2 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 280 264 257 264 271 263 256 257 251 251 251 251 251 -119 -111 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.2 39.5 39.7 39.7 39.7 39.6 39.5 39.4 39.4 39.4 39.4 39.4 39.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.4 68.9 68.4 68.3 68.1 68.5 69.0 69.5 69.8 69.8 69.8 69.8 69.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 1 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 11 11 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -9. -12. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. -34. -37. -39. -40. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -0. -3. -8. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -18. -25. -31. -38. -44. -48. -50. -48. -45. -44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -18. -25. -35. -47. -58. -66. -73. -80. -82. -82. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 39.2 69.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 376.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/20/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 57 54 52 47 42 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 54 52 47 42 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 51 46 41 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 43 38 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT