* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/19/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 140 142 141 141 136 129 122 113 109 106 109 106 106 103 100 96 V (KT) LAND 140 140 142 141 141 126 119 112 103 99 96 99 96 96 93 90 86 V (KT) LGEM 140 137 134 130 126 115 115 114 110 103 98 96 95 93 88 83 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 2 5 6 1 8 8 10 11 16 14 10 16 17 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 5 3 2 1 6 5 11 8 2 1 3 -4 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 140 70 261 293 324 314 316 286 266 238 249 238 267 260 292 288 293 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.6 29.0 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 156 151 153 152 152 154 152 144 151 161 162 155 146 141 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 152 147 142 143 141 140 141 136 128 133 141 142 134 121 116 109 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 -49.7 -49.5 -49.1 -49.0 -48.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 58 57 57 56 58 63 66 66 66 62 61 58 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 28 31 30 32 34 34 37 39 43 43 45 46 47 46 850 MB ENV VOR 26 31 40 47 43 54 53 57 54 66 47 72 64 76 86 95 96 200 MB DIV 87 105 69 27 21 6 37 36 72 82 102 115 66 33 35 33 48 700-850 TADV 4 5 2 3 0 1 1 5 18 15 22 12 10 9 9 6 1 LAND (KM) 400 306 212 122 33 33 81 101 213 344 494 616 719 783 631 627 572 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.8 19.6 20.6 21.7 22.9 24.3 25.7 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.7 63.5 64.2 64.9 65.6 67.1 68.5 69.8 70.7 71.4 71.9 72.4 72.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 9 9 5 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 58 62 66 64 61 49 51 55 65 62 57 42 45 49 32 28 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -10. -21. -34. -46. -57. -64. -68. -71. -75. -78. -81. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 19. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 6. 5. 8. 11. 16. 15. 16. 15. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. -4. -11. -18. -27. -31. -34. -31. -34. -34. -37. -39. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 16.1 62.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 752.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 6.2% 4.3% 3.1% 1.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.2% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 2.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/19/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 59( 81) 56( 92) 40( 95) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 97 99(100) 97(100) 98(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 140 142 141 141 126 119 112 103 99 96 99 96 96 93 90 86 18HR AGO 140 139 141 140 140 125 118 111 102 98 95 98 95 95 92 89 85 12HR AGO 140 137 136 135 135 120 113 106 97 93 90 93 90 90 87 84 80 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 130 115 108 101 92 88 85 88 85 85 82 79 75 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 106 99 92 83 79 76 79 76 76 73 70 66 IN 6HR 140 140 131 125 122 129 122 115 106 102 99 102 99 99 96 93 89 IN 12HR 140 140 142 133 127 123 116 109 100 96 93 96 93 93 90 87 83