* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 59 59 58 57 52 48 41 34 29 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 61 59 59 58 57 52 48 41 34 29 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 59 57 57 55 51 48 46 45 45 45 45 43 40 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 32 30 21 17 18 17 19 12 8 7 13 7 14 6 12 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -7 -1 -1 -4 -1 -6 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 3 3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 226 217 236 241 194 217 200 246 216 262 256 292 326 328 342 291 258 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.5 26.4 23.4 21.7 21.7 22.6 22.9 23.3 23.7 24.4 24.4 25.6 24.0 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 124 124 129 116 92 83 82 85 87 89 92 96 96 106 95 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 103 103 105 96 78 72 70 72 73 74 76 79 78 85 79 72 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -51.4 -52.1 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 4 3 5 3 3 0 1 1 3 2 4 3 5 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 59 58 56 50 44 41 40 45 46 42 40 42 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 38 38 37 38 36 35 32 28 26 23 21 18 14 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 70 67 66 60 65 56 82 34 30 38 19 -7 -37 -78 -81 -96 -108 200 MB DIV 64 40 10 34 81 46 47 6 -2 2 -21 -20 -91 -73 -58 -26 -18 700-850 TADV 18 11 18 12 0 1 -2 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 452 431 427 412 380 288 241 248 277 303 328 354 392 383 450 360 263 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.2 36.0 36.8 37.5 38.8 39.6 39.9 39.8 39.4 39.1 38.8 38.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.0 71.0 71.0 70.9 70.8 70.2 69.2 68.2 67.8 68.0 68.1 68.2 68.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 23 32 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -19. -24. -27. -31. -34. -37. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -4. -6. -11. -17. -22. -26. -30. -33. -37. -41. -43. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -13. -17. -24. -31. -36. -41. -47. -54. -61. -66. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 34.4 71.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.09 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.76 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 10.9% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/18/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 61 59 59 58 57 52 48 41 34 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 62 62 61 60 55 51 44 37 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 60 59 54 50 43 36 31 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 53 48 44 37 30 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT