* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 108 112 115 117 119 118 118 116 110 107 104 105 104 104 103 102 V (KT) LAND 100 108 112 115 117 119 118 98 105 99 96 93 94 93 92 91 91 V (KT) LGEM 100 108 114 117 119 122 120 99 108 106 105 101 97 99 95 92 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 3 7 3 4 7 9 9 12 19 16 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 5 7 2 1 3 9 5 9 7 2 -6 1 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 259 68 105 189 178 193 306 354 312 291 264 234 257 241 268 266 294 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 159 161 161 158 152 156 153 154 154 146 150 158 156 156 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 153 154 154 149 143 146 141 141 139 131 136 140 130 131 129 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -49.8 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 65 61 61 62 61 63 62 61 61 65 67 67 64 64 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 25 25 27 28 30 31 30 33 35 38 39 41 43 47 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 21 27 32 37 46 61 55 59 56 68 58 60 72 83 99 200 MB DIV 66 98 80 65 86 72 53 42 54 62 67 97 89 63 64 47 47 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 3 4 4 7 13 10 13 5 8 10 10 LAND (KM) 435 454 489 502 415 242 69 -11 68 74 180 311 446 722 742 758 726 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.8 17.6 18.4 19.3 20.3 21.4 22.6 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.5 61.2 61.9 62.6 64.0 65.4 66.9 68.3 69.6 70.7 71.5 72.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 10 10 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 58 61 64 64 59 64 64 53 51 52 62 60 54 37 40 39 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. -24. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 17. 17. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 7. 9. 12. 11. 13. 14. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 18. 18. 16. 10. 7. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 14.5 59.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 17.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.94 7.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.22 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.3% 53.0% 44.0% 31.2% 22.5% 31.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 40.5% 58.2% 48.2% 46.9% 27.9% 32.4% 12.8% 5.3% Bayesian: 64.4% 74.7% 77.8% 58.9% 52.7% 44.8% 2.1% 0.1% Consensus: 46.8% 62.0% 56.7% 45.7% 34.4% 36.1% 5.0% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/18/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 30( 45) 32( 63) 33( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 86 91( 99) 78(100) 79(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 108 112 115 117 119 118 98 105 99 96 93 94 93 92 91 91 18HR AGO 100 99 103 106 108 110 109 89 96 90 87 84 85 84 83 82 82 12HR AGO 100 97 96 99 101 103 102 82 89 83 80 77 78 77 76 75 75 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 94 93 73 80 74 71 68 69 68 67 66 66 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 83 82 62 69 63 60 57 58 57 56 55 55 IN 6HR 100 108 99 93 90 91 90 70 77 71 68 65 66 65 64 63 63 IN 12HR 100 108 112 103 97 93 92 72 79 73 70 67 68 67 66 65 65