* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 67 64 64 61 55 47 41 34 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 67 64 64 61 55 47 41 34 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 73 70 68 65 63 58 53 48 46 47 47 46 44 41 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 35 27 27 29 17 16 20 18 11 10 14 26 19 33 34 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 -1 2 1 -5 -3 -1 -3 -4 -3 -1 -3 -6 -3 -5 -9 -5 SHEAR DIR 228 230 227 216 232 201 228 223 233 225 269 274 287 260 290 289 280 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.3 23.6 21.7 21.4 22.6 23.6 24.2 25.0 24.8 26.4 27.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 128 126 125 116 94 83 80 86 91 95 103 100 115 127 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 109 106 104 104 96 79 72 69 72 76 79 85 82 92 101 89 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 -50.7 -51.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -51.9 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 4 4 2 5 3 2 0 2 2 4 3 5 3 700-500 MB RH 60 60 57 56 56 55 54 47 40 40 44 48 51 44 43 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 37 37 37 37 37 34 31 28 26 23 20 17 13 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 55 63 65 65 58 67 63 70 26 28 10 -1 -26 -58 -108 -69 -11 200 MB DIV 81 65 34 38 25 75 56 36 6 -3 5 -13 -30 -61 -33 -6 23 700-850 TADV 22 16 19 10 17 5 1 -4 -1 -1 1 0 0 0 1 0 11 LAND (KM) 522 472 431 402 391 373 298 241 238 285 331 379 429 340 438 485 346 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.4 34.1 34.9 35.7 37.4 38.7 39.6 39.9 39.6 39.2 38.7 38.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.4 71.4 71.4 71.4 71.4 71.0 70.2 69.2 68.4 68.0 67.8 67.8 67.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 8 7 5 2 2 2 2 5 3 3 4 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 7 7 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 12 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -17. -24. -30. -34. -38. -42. -45. -46. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -7. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -23. -27. -30. -34. -37. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -11. -14. -20. -28. -34. -41. -47. -55. -61. -70. -76. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 32.6 71.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 367.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/18/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 72 69 67 64 64 61 55 47 41 34 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 71 69 66 66 63 57 49 43 36 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 66 66 63 57 49 43 36 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 62 59 53 45 39 32 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT