* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP152017 09/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 79 79 76 66 54 43 35 31 30 30 32 34 36 39 41 V (KT) LAND 70 77 79 79 76 66 54 43 35 31 30 30 32 34 36 39 41 V (KT) LGEM 70 77 79 77 72 59 47 38 32 27 24 22 21 21 22 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 5 3 9 11 14 16 13 4 3 1 4 7 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 3 9 2 2 4 4 2 -2 -1 -7 -5 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 215 213 234 240 192 137 135 127 126 163 211 291 242 237 269 266 244 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.4 25.3 25.6 26.2 26.8 27.2 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 127 123 119 114 113 117 124 131 135 143 145 146 147 151 149 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 50 49 51 49 51 55 53 53 51 51 50 51 53 61 60 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 15 16 15 13 11 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -5 8 2 5 5 -14 -15 -19 -7 6 27 26 14 16 7 -2 200 MB DIV 19 41 59 40 27 53 47 44 5 16 17 24 21 7 -9 -23 -28 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1759 1731 1703 1676 1651 1654 1719 1821 1956 2118 2226 2055 1896 1944 1806 1664 1538 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.9 18.8 18.4 17.9 17.4 16.8 16.1 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.3 127.4 127.4 127.5 127.6 128.0 128.7 129.6 130.8 132.3 133.9 135.7 137.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 3 3 4 5 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 6 14 17 22 15 17 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 9. 6. -4. -16. -27. -35. -39. -40. -40. -38. -36. -34. -31. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.8 127.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 476.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 61% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 60.8% 45.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.6% 11.3% 21.9% 4.5% 7.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.3% 19.0% 7.3% 1.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##