* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 74 79 83 87 91 95 97 96 96 88 89 89 92 92 96 V (KT) LAND 65 69 74 79 83 87 91 95 97 82 91 83 84 84 87 87 91 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 73 76 78 84 94 102 104 90 100 96 96 95 91 92 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 6 4 3 3 4 5 10 8 9 13 9 19 13 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 9 9 6 3 5 6 5 1 6 6 8 3 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 246 249 289 330 314 253 345 278 331 341 312 280 272 253 251 257 250 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.0 29.3 29.8 28.8 29.2 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 154 156 158 161 163 157 156 159 150 155 166 149 155 165 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 150 150 150 152 153 154 148 146 148 137 141 156 135 138 146 142 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.4 -51.9 -50.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -50.4 -50.3 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 60 63 63 66 65 66 64 65 66 68 70 75 70 71 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 22 22 22 25 27 29 29 30 27 30 32 36 38 43 850 MB ENV VOR 13 13 15 14 17 24 34 47 61 67 71 68 67 46 61 58 78 200 MB DIV 67 50 76 89 89 27 95 39 66 32 81 73 116 69 100 51 75 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 -2 -3 -1 3 5 3 3 6 10 13 5 11 12 9 LAND (KM) 534 486 456 456 473 514 361 209 60 -11 25 22 62 378 483 573 661 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.9 58.8 59.5 60.3 61.7 63.0 64.3 65.7 67.1 68.3 69.3 70.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 10 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 59 66 60 58 59 64 62 67 69 63 52 52 60 71 58 63 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 7. 9. 4. 6. 8. 12. 13. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 32. 31. 31. 23. 24. 24. 27. 27. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.6 57.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.87 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 316.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.52 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.86 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.4% 51.8% 39.8% 30.2% 24.9% 41.7% 37.6% 44.9% Logistic: 11.4% 38.8% 23.8% 22.7% 15.1% 28.3% 21.4% 20.2% Bayesian: 5.0% 39.9% 15.3% 1.6% 2.7% 23.1% 20.5% 7.8% Consensus: 13.3% 43.5% 26.3% 18.2% 14.2% 31.0% 26.5% 24.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/17/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 9( 15) 10( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 27( 36) 42( 63) 39( 77) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 74 79 83 87 91 95 97 82 91 83 84 84 87 87 91 18HR AGO 65 64 69 74 78 82 86 90 92 77 86 78 79 79 82 82 86 12HR AGO 65 62 61 66 70 74 78 82 84 69 78 70 71 71 74 74 78 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 59 63 67 71 73 58 67 59 60 60 63 63 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT