* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 78 76 74 71 72 68 60 50 44 40 38 39 38 35 29 V (KT) LAND 80 80 78 76 74 71 72 68 60 50 44 40 38 39 38 35 29 V (KT) LGEM 80 83 83 81 78 71 66 58 52 48 47 50 53 56 55 50 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 34 30 35 29 25 17 20 18 17 12 7 9 12 15 28 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 7 -1 0 0 -1 -3 0 -1 -4 0 -1 -1 -4 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 234 230 223 225 226 226 197 226 227 253 239 284 315 288 250 266 252 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.1 22.7 21.9 22.0 25.1 27.2 25.6 26.7 23.1 24.8 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 140 136 131 128 127 114 89 84 84 103 124 109 122 90 100 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 117 113 109 107 104 94 76 73 73 84 98 89 103 76 82 77 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -53.1 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 5 3 2 1 1 2 3 2 5 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 58 57 54 54 51 45 35 34 36 38 33 30 33 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 35 37 38 40 39 37 34 30 27 24 23 23 23 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 50 60 67 65 67 62 78 75 66 29 22 5 1 -13 -41 -57 -51 200 MB DIV 62 70 77 58 61 39 71 51 40 7 -1 -14 -33 -38 -55 -25 -3 700-850 TADV 17 18 23 15 16 19 2 2 2 0 -2 0 0 0 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 590 536 486 435 397 364 345 279 244 257 333 420 469 458 292 340 208 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 32.0 32.7 33.5 34.3 35.8 37.3 38.7 39.5 39.8 39.7 39.5 39.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.7 71.7 71.7 71.4 70.7 69.6 68.2 67.0 65.9 64.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 7 12 5 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 23 18 10 7 18 2 0 0 0 0 35 0 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -16. -23. -30. -34. -37. -41. -43. -45. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -12. -15. -14. -14. -12. -11. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 4. -0. -7. -12. -16. -18. -19. -18. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -8. -12. -20. -30. -36. -40. -42. -41. -42. -45. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.2 71.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 402.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 4.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/17/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 5( 17) 4( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 78 76 74 71 72 68 60 50 44 40 38 39 38 35 29 18HR AGO 80 79 77 75 73 70 71 67 59 49 43 39 37 38 37 34 28 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 72 69 70 66 58 48 42 38 36 37 36 33 27 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 68 65 66 62 54 44 38 34 32 33 32 29 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT