* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 75 81 87 91 97 96 100 98 95 95 97 96 97 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 75 81 87 91 97 84 90 77 76 76 78 77 78 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 67 70 78 89 101 109 99 103 104 91 92 91 89 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 5 7 7 5 6 4 6 2 9 6 11 16 17 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 8 6 6 1 2 2 6 5 4 9 10 1 0 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 245 274 250 260 332 24 14 54 346 20 323 298 275 251 267 250 272 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.1 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.8 29.1 28.9 29.7 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 153 153 155 159 161 161 152 159 153 154 165 153 150 163 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 150 150 149 150 152 153 152 143 148 141 141 151 140 135 145 147 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 60 61 60 61 59 61 59 61 64 68 70 68 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 22 24 24 26 27 30 28 32 32 32 33 36 38 40 850 MB ENV VOR 3 10 13 13 13 18 31 44 43 64 55 66 68 51 45 73 56 200 MB DIV 61 82 75 62 78 41 47 33 53 42 30 61 87 73 69 70 67 700-850 TADV 5 0 -3 -3 -6 -6 0 2 3 0 5 4 16 5 16 7 18 LAND (KM) 639 567 513 490 487 522 430 268 108 -16 48 0 5 278 411 437 547 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.7 56.7 57.7 58.5 59.4 61.0 62.3 63.7 65.1 66.6 67.9 69.2 70.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 7 6 7 7 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 48 57 66 60 57 62 59 67 66 62 53 51 58 76 69 51 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 7. 4. 8. 8. 6. 7. 10. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 7. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 20. 26. 32. 36. 42. 41. 45. 43. 40. 40. 42. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.3 55.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.88 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.74 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 57% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.0% 51.3% 37.5% 24.4% 18.1% 44.1% 45.0% 56.9% Logistic: 13.0% 38.2% 26.5% 21.8% 10.1% 20.1% 14.2% 11.0% Bayesian: 5.3% 30.6% 21.4% 1.1% 2.7% 23.6% 35.0% 7.9% Consensus: 12.1% 40.1% 28.5% 15.7% 10.3% 29.3% 31.4% 25.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/17/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 5( 7) 8( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 7( 9) 12( 20) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 65 69 75 81 87 91 97 84 90 77 76 76 78 77 78 18HR AGO 55 54 59 63 69 75 81 85 91 78 84 71 70 70 72 71 72 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 61 67 73 77 83 70 76 63 62 62 64 63 64 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 51 57 63 67 73 60 66 53 52 52 54 53 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT