* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 72 72 74 71 72 69 60 48 45 42 47 46 46 44 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 72 72 74 71 72 69 60 48 45 42 47 46 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 71 71 71 70 66 62 60 52 48 48 49 54 57 57 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 23 28 33 36 34 28 20 23 20 19 11 12 7 15 25 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 6 4 1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 276 251 230 232 234 215 229 208 224 222 228 222 289 228 256 236 244 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.1 27.7 24.1 22.4 25.0 24.2 22.9 26.4 24.0 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 142 138 136 132 125 132 98 88 104 98 90 120 94 127 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 119 116 114 109 103 108 83 76 86 81 77 103 78 101 103 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -52.1 -53.8 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -53.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 3 4 1 0 0 1 0 3 3 700-500 MB RH 54 59 60 60 60 58 54 53 53 50 36 31 34 31 23 26 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 32 33 33 35 40 38 40 40 35 30 29 28 30 31 31 33 850 MB ENV VOR 45 53 64 71 70 78 67 76 87 70 41 30 21 11 -7 -1 -28 200 MB DIV 48 50 82 65 72 68 8 83 62 50 32 13 2 -39 -29 -17 -5 700-850 TADV 21 14 19 24 28 15 15 1 2 -6 -5 -8 -8 -2 -5 3 3 LAND (KM) 730 677 627 582 543 454 429 423 353 275 321 327 359 474 337 501 488 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.3 30.9 31.6 32.3 33.8 35.4 37.0 38.4 39.6 40.3 40.6 40.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.7 71.7 71.6 71.5 71.4 71.3 71.0 70.6 69.6 68.2 66.6 64.8 63.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 15 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 41 34 29 24 21 10 8 26 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 11 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -25. -27. -29. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -11. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 7. 9. 9. 2. -5. -7. -10. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 1. 2. -0. -10. -22. -25. -28. -23. -24. -24. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.6 71.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 423.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.21 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 4.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/17/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 5( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 72 72 72 74 71 72 69 60 48 45 42 47 46 46 44 18HR AGO 70 69 70 70 70 72 69 70 67 58 46 43 40 45 44 44 42 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 66 68 65 66 63 54 42 39 36 41 40 40 38 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 62 59 60 57 48 36 33 30 35 34 34 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT