* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152017 09/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 60 65 76 83 90 93 94 95 95 92 91 92 93 90 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 60 65 76 83 90 93 94 95 80 76 84 84 86 82 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 57 63 73 81 90 100 109 110 92 103 103 98 92 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 7 6 8 7 9 6 7 7 8 3 11 18 19 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 1 4 0 2 3 0 2 3 3 0 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 129 175 233 259 309 333 356 4 5 302 351 302 314 260 250 245 232 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.8 29.9 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 161 157 155 154 154 154 157 157 154 165 168 147 153 154 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 156 161 157 152 150 148 146 149 148 145 156 159 137 138 137 141 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -50.6 -51.6 -50.8 -51.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 60 61 62 62 61 59 59 61 61 64 63 71 69 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 20 20 24 24 26 27 28 29 29 27 27 29 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 39 21 15 11 11 6 10 6 18 26 32 34 41 8 24 24 44 200 MB DIV 53 72 98 69 79 77 77 32 55 38 57 24 82 31 88 83 133 700-850 TADV -1 3 5 6 1 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 6 15 21 16 24 LAND (KM) 765 768 747 662 579 494 488 545 406 248 77 -16 -3 185 289 439 586 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.7 53.1 54.4 55.5 56.5 58.2 59.7 61.1 62.5 63.8 65.3 67.0 68.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 11 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 10 11 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 37 48 49 50 56 65 58 61 59 70 72 66 62 63 60 61 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 7. 6. 7. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 25. 36. 43. 50. 53. 54. 55. 55. 52. 51. 52. 53. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.2 51.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 FIFTEEN 09/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.86 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.79 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 63% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 52.1% 37.8% 23.3% 16.8% 36.9% 42.7% 63.4% Logistic: 26.0% 65.5% 53.9% 36.6% 17.7% 36.2% 29.6% 36.5% Bayesian: 9.7% 61.9% 46.3% 2.7% 5.7% 44.5% 40.4% 28.9% Consensus: 17.6% 59.8% 46.0% 20.9% 13.4% 39.2% 37.6% 42.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 FIFTEEN 09/16/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 FIFTEEN 09/16/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 5( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 7( 7) 16( 22) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 53 60 65 76 83 90 93 94 95 80 76 84 84 86 82 18HR AGO 40 39 46 53 58 69 76 83 86 87 88 73 69 77 77 79 75 12HR AGO 40 37 36 43 48 59 66 73 76 77 78 63 59 67 67 69 65 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 46 53 60 63 64 65 50 46 54 54 56 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT