* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142017 09/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 40 41 42 40 39 35 33 36 42 43 46 48 50 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 40 41 42 40 39 35 33 36 42 43 46 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 40 40 40 37 33 28 24 23 24 27 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 13 12 13 17 29 35 32 31 19 5 8 14 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 4 3 4 -3 1 8 8 7 0 4 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 339 348 348 328 313 285 285 293 278 274 264 228 340 320 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 129 129 129 132 135 135 131 131 135 135 136 137 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 125 123 122 122 126 131 131 124 124 127 127 126 128 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -55.1 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 56 54 52 53 54 66 64 58 56 54 55 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -16 -12 -14 -14 -6 -23 -34 -28 -18 -9 -11 0 15 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 6 4 6 0 -17 -15 27 85 66 80 16 3 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 -1 6 8 7 10 13 12 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1672 1741 1811 1813 1796 1791 1759 1671 1625 1588 1547 1503 1484 1661 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.9 13.7 14.6 15.5 16.4 17.1 17.6 18.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.8 33.4 34.1 34.8 35.4 36.8 38.5 40.4 42.1 43.8 45.5 47.4 49.2 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 7 6 6 8 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 11 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 8 8 8 8 11 22 23 21 29 30 19 15 20 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -12. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. -0. -2. 1. 7. 8. 11. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.5 32.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.50 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 15.2% 9.6% 6.5% 5.4% 8.3% 9.7% 7.7% Logistic: 7.7% 14.2% 12.2% 3.7% 1.0% 4.7% 2.2% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 10.3% 7.6% 3.5% 2.2% 4.4% 4.0% 2.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/16/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 40 41 42 40 39 35 33 36 42 43 46 48 50 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 37 38 39 37 36 32 30 33 39 40 43 45 47 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 33 34 32 31 27 25 28 34 35 38 40 42 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 27 25 24 20 18 21 27 28 31 33 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT