* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142017 09/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 31 32 33 33 30 26 23 24 23 25 28 30 32 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 31 32 33 33 30 26 23 24 23 25 28 30 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 19 21 21 23 24 25 29 34 37 36 33 29 21 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 1 -2 -2 0 1 0 4 6 6 5 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 325 335 338 338 335 321 295 289 286 282 287 270 264 262 327 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 136 134 131 130 134 131 136 137 137 138 134 133 133 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 130 128 125 123 128 126 131 132 131 131 124 121 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -55.1 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.6 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 58 58 58 52 52 54 59 65 63 59 56 53 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -27 -24 -12 -4 -14 -14 -31 -44 -41 -38 -19 -1 28 37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 19 -8 8 18 -4 -8 3 18 43 48 83 8 -24 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 -3 7 7 4 4 7 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1388 1466 1545 1619 1693 1829 1899 1867 1772 1713 1658 1638 1644 1830 1799 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.4 15.2 16.2 17.2 18.2 19.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.2 30.9 31.7 32.4 33.1 34.4 35.9 37.8 39.7 41.7 43.8 45.8 47.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 6 9 10 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 13 12 10 9 13 13 17 21 30 26 14 21 26 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -16. -21. -23. -24. -24. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -7. -6. -7. -5. -2. -0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 30.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.32 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.64 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 10.5% 6.7% 4.4% 3.4% 5.7% 6.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.3% 2.9% 1.6% 1.1% 2.0% 2.1% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/16/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 30 31 32 33 33 30 26 23 24 23 25 28 30 32 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 32 33 33 30 26 23 24 23 25 28 30 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 30 30 27 23 20 21 20 22 25 27 29 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 23 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT