* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142017 09/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 30 33 35 34 31 27 25 25 26 27 30 32 35 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 30 33 35 34 31 27 25 25 26 27 30 32 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 30 29 28 27 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 18 19 18 23 15 24 33 31 31 31 21 24 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 2 -2 -1 1 5 4 5 7 10 5 3 -1 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 317 325 338 336 328 332 286 277 272 271 289 282 267 271 322 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.7 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 137 135 134 131 131 134 133 138 137 138 139 136 135 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 133 131 129 127 125 125 129 128 134 132 132 132 126 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -55.5 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 61 59 59 54 51 55 56 62 65 63 56 55 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 10 9 8 6 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -25 -25 -21 -16 -14 -18 -24 -39 -41 -38 -21 -15 8 8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 41 31 1 6 4 -2 13 -13 30 38 63 22 10 -20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 -1 1 8 4 5 7 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1278 1360 1442 1510 1579 1716 1860 1906 1830 1719 1659 1599 1580 1948 1861 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.6 15.3 16.2 17.1 18.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.1 29.9 30.7 31.3 32.0 33.3 34.7 36.5 38.4 40.5 42.5 44.6 46.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 17 15 14 12 9 10 14 15 17 29 30 24 23 26 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 30. 32. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -17. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 3. 5. 4. 1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -0. 2. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 29.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.47 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.66 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.59 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.5% 8.5% 5.8% 4.9% 7.1% 7.9% 6.7% Logistic: 1.2% 3.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.6% 3.6% 2.1% 1.7% 2.6% 2.8% 2.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/15/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 30 30 33 35 34 31 27 25 25 26 27 30 32 35 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 33 35 34 31 27 25 25 26 27 30 32 35 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 30 32 31 28 24 22 22 23 24 27 29 32 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 25 24 21 17 15 15 16 17 20 22 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT