* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 55 64 72 84 90 89 81 71 56 44 44 43 44 46 48 V (KT) LAND 40 47 55 64 72 84 90 89 81 71 53 48 48 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 52 58 65 77 86 88 85 77 56 53 53 36 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 8 9 5 8 11 12 11 13 14 15 33 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -5 -5 0 2 3 1 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 91 76 74 84 124 127 145 131 150 170 207 240 247 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 29.7 30.5 29.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 155 154 154 153 151 149 148 148 160 171 158 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -50.8 -50.4 -50.3 -50.4 -50.3 -50.0 -50.2 -50.4 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 6 6 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 57 57 58 58 55 46 44 39 39 33 26 22 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 20 21 24 25 26 25 22 19 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 8 6 5 21 41 44 29 20 19 40 -4 55 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 95 96 73 64 61 52 9 -12 11 21 12 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 -3 0 -3 -2 -7 0 4 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 501 485 469 456 444 407 383 257 134 44 -11 45 86 -308 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.8 19.5 20.6 21.7 22.9 24.1 25.1 26.1 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.3 109.3 109.3 109.3 109.2 109.4 109.7 110.1 110.5 110.6 110.4 110.2 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 2 3 5 6 6 6 6 5 12 19 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 18 17 16 16 14 10 8 10 10 20 29 18 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 24. 27. 29. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 9. 11. 8. 4. -8. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 24. 32. 44. 50. 49. 41. 31. 16. 4. 4. 3. 4. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.4 109.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 10.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 48.3% 37.6% 26.0% 16.7% 46.3% 43.7% 42.3% Logistic: 9.2% 23.5% 17.6% 12.7% 7.9% 11.1% 9.9% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.9% 8.3% 4.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 26.7% 19.9% 13.5% 8.3% 19.3% 18.0% 15.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/14/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##