* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 62 63 64 65 68 71 76 79 82 77 78 70 62 55 50 V (KT) LAND 60 60 62 63 64 65 68 71 76 79 82 77 78 70 62 55 50 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 59 60 60 62 65 71 75 76 71 63 59 54 49 48 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 15 16 14 23 19 20 21 33 33 30 22 16 21 20 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 7 4 1 0 0 5 8 1 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 359 342 333 317 301 288 283 264 227 222 216 227 205 218 223 238 239 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.2 28.5 27.0 26.0 27.2 22.8 21.0 24.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 154 156 156 159 158 160 154 142 123 113 126 90 84 100 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 132 136 137 137 137 134 134 129 119 103 95 104 78 76 87 94 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.3 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -52.5 -53.6 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 5 1 1 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 52 58 57 59 59 62 59 59 55 55 50 45 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 26 26 27 29 31 35 38 41 41 43 41 37 35 32 850 MB ENV VOR 13 0 -13 -11 -5 -11 23 43 61 75 78 73 78 84 46 65 70 200 MB DIV 24 4 18 13 9 37 79 43 88 79 77 20 42 13 30 19 -19 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 -6 0 0 11 18 20 21 14 13 8 0 1 1 -4 LAND (KM) 665 659 663 693 729 810 791 715 604 510 436 378 393 256 204 345 508 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.3 27.2 28.3 29.3 30.5 31.8 33.2 34.8 36.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.9 67.6 68.4 69.2 70.0 71.4 72.2 72.5 72.5 72.3 72.0 71.7 71.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 7 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 15 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 39 47 46 38 35 39 38 34 37 28 9 0 32 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 18. 17. 19. 13. 8. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 16. 19. 22. 17. 18. 10. 2. -5. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.0 66.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.50 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 502.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.41 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 16.0% 10.4% 8.0% 7.6% 9.2% 8.6% 6.0% Logistic: 4.7% 8.8% 6.2% 6.2% 3.8% 5.7% 5.7% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 8.6% 5.7% 4.8% 3.8% 5.0% 4.8% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/14/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/14/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 62 63 64 65 68 71 76 79 82 77 78 70 62 55 50 18HR AGO 60 59 61 62 63 64 67 70 75 78 81 76 77 69 61 54 49 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 58 59 62 65 70 73 76 71 72 64 56 49 44 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 52 55 58 63 66 69 64 65 57 49 42 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT