* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/13/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 39 45 50 54 59 63 64 65 64 66 66 67 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 39 45 50 54 59 63 64 65 64 66 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 35 37 39 42 43 44 44 43 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 14 12 9 6 4 8 6 9 13 12 6 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -4 -6 -6 -1 -5 -3 -6 -3 0 0 4 5 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 80 91 101 105 105 79 26 24 60 51 76 77 48 57 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 27.9 28.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 148 147 145 145 144 144 142 142 142 146 141 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 67 65 62 60 59 55 56 54 55 52 52 51 45 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 14 15 15 15 13 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 38 25 5 -3 -9 -14 -9 -20 -10 -10 0 9 6 -4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 19 11 0 -11 -2 -3 0 -4 31 35 17 -6 -4 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1419 1458 1500 1529 1560 1615 1664 1712 1729 1730 1730 1730 1730 1496 1547 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.7 122.4 122.9 123.4 124.2 124.8 125.3 125.5 125.6 125.6 125.6 125.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 5 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 17 16 16 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 9 10 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 15. 20. 24. 29. 33. 34. 35. 34. 36. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 121.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/13/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.89 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 17.5% 15.3% 10.9% 0.0% 12.8% 14.0% 16.3% Logistic: 1.2% 5.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1.9% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.8% 5.6% 3.9% 0.2% 4.5% 5.3% 7.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/13/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##