* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/12/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 43 47 49 52 53 55 57 59 62 64 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 43 47 49 52 53 55 57 59 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 33 34 35 37 39 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 13 14 17 13 12 6 7 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 -2 -5 -3 -5 -3 -6 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 107 109 98 92 97 101 112 89 64 97 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 150 149 148 147 147 146 145 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 68 66 64 57 57 53 53 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 95 90 74 56 26 -2 -2 0 -2 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 39 47 38 37 23 16 34 30 16 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1086 1164 1244 1294 1342 1413 1454 1483 1498 1514 1514 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.5 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 15.9 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.9 118.7 119.4 120.1 121.3 122.1 122.7 123.1 123.3 123.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 24 20 16 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 19. 22. 23. 25. 27. 29. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 117.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.18 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.83 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 16.6% 15.6% 11.6% 0.0% 13.2% 13.6% 17.2% Logistic: 0.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.1% 5.4% 4.0% 0.0% 4.6% 4.8% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##