* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/12/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 35 40 42 44 46 46 48 51 54 58 61 64 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 35 40 42 44 46 46 48 51 54 58 61 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 33 33 34 35 36 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 18 15 15 16 13 11 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 -1 -5 -6 -6 -6 -5 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 100 100 101 94 86 103 104 116 81 72 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 155 154 151 149 148 148 146 146 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 68 68 67 62 59 57 55 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 87 94 88 71 42 16 4 7 14 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 35 36 48 47 41 11 19 15 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 999 1089 1184 1256 1320 1401 1462 1506 1561 1634 1702 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.5 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.8 117.9 118.7 119.6 121.0 122.1 123.0 123.8 124.7 125.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 26 24 20 17 15 15 14 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 36. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -7. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 18. 21. 24. 28. 31. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 115.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.12 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.11 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.94 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 14.9% 11.3% 7.5% 0.0% 11.2% 12.0% 15.5% Logistic: 0.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 1.0% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.8% 4.0% 2.6% 0.0% 4.0% 4.4% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##