* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/12/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 60 59 58 60 63 63 66 67 70 73 73 71 70 66 V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 60 59 58 60 63 63 66 67 70 73 73 71 70 66 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 61 63 63 62 59 55 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 21 19 21 20 16 12 17 19 22 29 35 33 26 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 6 6 6 5 5 0 4 2 2 4 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 347 353 350 343 337 3 352 314 311 279 276 249 243 232 219 243 241 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.6 28.4 26.7 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 153 151 151 150 156 159 160 163 159 154 144 142 123 125 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 130 129 128 127 135 138 141 142 137 131 122 120 108 107 99 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 7 7 5 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 59 57 55 54 50 46 49 54 58 58 58 58 59 54 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 24 26 27 28 27 28 28 31 35 38 40 43 43 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -40 -36 -28 -31 -14 -4 -6 -11 -3 5 13 45 82 96 65 81 200 MB DIV -24 7 -32 -57 -49 -28 7 14 11 19 96 63 49 53 27 54 97 700-850 TADV 17 7 2 6 10 2 0 -4 -3 0 12 9 10 15 9 2 6 LAND (KM) 878 874 874 853 836 762 696 663 708 781 731 647 495 539 387 630 562 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.5 25.7 25.4 25.5 26.1 27.0 28.2 29.4 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.5 67.9 67.3 66.8 66.4 66.3 67.1 68.4 69.9 71.6 72.8 73.7 74.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 3 5 6 9 8 7 7 8 9 15 14 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 41 42 42 40 47 49 37 40 37 28 26 30 4 17 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. -2. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 6. 5. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.5 68.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.2% 1.6% 1.3% 0.7% 1.7% 1.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2.8% 0.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/12/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/12/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 61 60 59 58 60 63 63 66 67 70 73 73 71 70 66 18HR AGO 65 64 62 61 60 59 61 64 64 67 68 71 74 74 72 71 67 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 59 58 60 63 63 66 67 70 73 73 71 70 66 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 53 55 58 58 61 62 65 68 68 66 65 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT