* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152017 09/12/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 37 42 45 46 47 48 50 52 54 57 59 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 37 42 45 46 47 48 50 52 54 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 27 29 31 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 13 14 15 16 12 15 10 13 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 0 2 -3 -6 -7 -7 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 97 106 100 99 112 107 109 111 107 109 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 156 158 154 148 146 146 145 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 68 69 69 67 62 57 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 76 74 74 80 79 41 20 -12 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 80 52 26 41 64 61 12 9 24 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 798 864 941 1022 1108 1251 1331 1388 1444 1506 1563 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 114.1 115.2 116.2 117.2 118.9 120.2 121.3 122.3 123.2 124.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 25 28 28 29 21 14 14 13 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 25. 27. 29. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.3 113.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.85 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.6% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.9% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 5.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 FIFTEEN 09/12/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##